Value Betting - Find Value Bets with the Kelly Method

Value Betting Value Betting is an advanced betting strategy where you bet when the market price (odds) is higher than the real probabilities. By identifying value bets, you can find bets with positive expected value, meaning you will profit over time even if you win approximately 52-55% of your bets. We use the Sharp Reference method to calculate fair odds - we take bookmakers with the lowest margin (~2%) as a reference point because these have the most accurate odds. When other bookmakers offer higher odds than these "sharp" bookmakers, you have found a value bet that can give you a statistical advantage over time.

How Value Betting Works

Value betting means betting when the market price (odds) is higher than the real probabilities. We normalize probabilities per bookmaker for 1/X/2 by removing the margin and then take the average across bookmakers to get fair odds. Fair odds are 1 / fair probability, and when market odds are higher than fair odds, there is positive expected value. We use the Sharp Reference method where we first look for Pinnacle (which has ~2% margin) as a reference point, and if Pinnacle is missing, we use Best Price No-Vig as a fallback.

Kelly Method for Optimal Stake Size

The Kelly method calculates optimal stake as a percentage of bankroll based on odds and probability. The formula takes into account your edge (value %) and gives you an optimal stake size that maximizes your long-term profit. We use half-Kelly as standard for lower variance and more conservative bankroll management. With the Kelly method, you can automatically calculate how much you should bet based on your bankroll and the value you have identified in the bet.

Which Markets and Sports

Our value betting tool analyzes both H2H markets (1/X/2) and Over/Under markets (totals) to find value bets. We search through all major Swedish bookmakers and compare odds against our fair odds calculations to identify the best value betting opportunities. Our algorithms update automatically every 30 seconds so you always see the latest value betting opportunities. We analyze matches from all major leagues and sports, from football and ice hockey to tennis and basketball.

Risks and Important Considerations

Value betting is a long-term strategy just like casinos have an advantage over players - you don't win every bet, but the statistical advantage gives profit over time. Short-term losses are normal and expected, and it's important to follow your bankroll management and not overbet. Probabilities are estimates based on data, but they are not guarantees - odds can move, limitations can occur, and bookmakers can change their odds. Always bet responsibly, always verify odds before betting, and remember that value betting requires discipline and patience to be profitable over time. If you instead want to focus on guaranteed profit with risk-free bets, you can try our Sure Bets feature which helps you find arbitrage opportunities where you can guarantee profit regardless of match result.